Welcome to “Georgia’s Next 10 New Birds” – a forum for discussion and speculation about which bird species may show up for the first time in our state in the future. The purpose of this project is not a contest in the sense of any birder’s list “winning” – the likelihood of anyone’s entire list of 10 species showing up in the state is actually pretty low. The purpose is to present an interesting picture of patterns of movement, habitat or climate change, expansion of scientific knowledge through field work, introduced species, etc. through speculation about the bird species that may appear in Georgia based on these and other factors. Of course, most lists include a few wild cards just for fun!

When a bird species shows up in Georgia for the first time, this page will reflect these new records (in red) and recognize those birders who predicted that they would show up.

20 Years of First Georgia Records

2008 ???	2007 Green-breasted Mango Smith's Longspur	2006 California Gull Cackling Goose
2005 Buff-bellied Hummingbird	2004 Thayer's Gull	2003 Yellow-billed Loon
2002 Cave Swallow Sage Thrasher White-faced Ibis Pacific Loon Scott's Oriole	2001 Broad-billed Hummingbird Green Violet-Ear	2000 Bell’s Vireo Ash-throated Flycatcher Spotted Towhee Black-headed Gull
1998 Calliope Hummingbird Northern Wheatear	1997 Western Grebe Virginia's Warbler	1995 Little Gull
1993 Townsend's Warbler Snowy Plover Anna's Hummingbird	1992 Broad-tailed Hummingbird Allen's Hummingbird Magnificent Hummingbird	1990 Black-chinned Hummingbird
1989 Shiny Cowbird	1987 MacGillivray's Warbler

Predictions of Georgia’s Next 10 New Birds

Ken Blankenship Snail Kite Black-capped Chickadee Fea’s Petrel Short-tailed Hawk Chestnut-collared Longspur Great Skua Thick-billed Murre Blue-throated Hummingbird Fork-tailed Flycatcher Bronzed Cowbird	Pierre Howard White-tailed Kite Groove-billed Ani Thick-billed Murre Western Gull Long-billed Murrelet Inca Dove Red-necked Stint Black-tailed Gull Bar-tailed Godwit Costa's Hummingbird	Dan Vickers Snail Kite Short-tailed Hawk Slaty-backed Gull Groove-billed Ani Lesser Nighthawk Vaux's Swift Fork-tailed Flycatcher Townsend's Solitaire Bronzed Cowbird Common Myna
Brandon Best Barrow's Goldeneye Neotropic Cormorant White-tailed Kite Inca Dove Flammulated Owl Vaux's Swift Red-naped Sapsucker Fork-tailed Flycatcher Townsend's Solitaire Chestnut-collared Longspur	Bill Lotz White-tailed Kite Townsend's Solitaire Clark's Nutcracker Costa's Hummingbird Groove-billed Ani Fork-tailed Flycatcher Gyrfalcon Jabiru Snail Kite Trumpeter Swan	Bob Zaremba Herald Petrel Tufted Duck Short-tailed Hawk Neotropic Cormorant Red-necked Stint Sulphur-bellied Flycatcher Cordilleran Flycatcher Townsend's Solitaire Cassin's Kingbird White Wagtail
Jim Throckmorton Purple Swamphen Common Myna Golden-cheeked Warbler Bronzed Cowbird Short-tailed Shearwater Neotropic Cormorant Lesser Sandplover Hammond’s Flycatcher Ringed Turtle-Dove Atlantic Puffin	Walt Chambers Trumpeter Swan Neotropic Cormorant Snail Kite White-tailed Kite Groove-billed Ani Costa's Hummingbird Blue-throated Hummingbird Fork-tailed Flycatcher Cassin's Kingbird Lazuli Bunting	Darlene Moore Snail Kite Clark's Grebe Bermuda Petrel Chesnut-collared Longspur Streak-backed Oriole Lazuli Bunting Prairie Falcon Ivory Gull White-eared Hummingbird Long-billed Murrelet
Grant McCreary Fork-tailed Flycatcher Inca Dove Long-billed Murrelet Snail Kite White-tailed Kite Costa's Hummingbird Brown-crested Flycatcher Hermit Warbler Golden-crowned Sparrow Bronzed Cowbird

Conjecture, Speculation, and Ramblings

Pelagic Species – These are birds that spend the vast majority of their lives at sea, usually far from sight of land and, therefore, far from any land-locked observer who might wish to see them. In Georgia, the occurrence of many of these birds in off-shore waters is still largely unknown. Every seabirding expedition brings back new information about these birds, which include diving species like alcids (Razorbill, Murres, etc.) as well as expert long-distance aviators like shearwaters, petrels, and terns. It is likely that these expeditions will eventually lead to the discovery of more first-time records in the state, and this leads to speculation by many birders about additional ocean species showing up such as Fea’s Petrel, Thick-billed Murre, Long-billed Murrelet, Atlantic Puffin, Short-tailed Shearwater, Herald Petrel, Great Skua, etc.

Hummingbirds – When it comes to these little guys, I think the rule is “There are no rules.”
For reasons not fully understood by the Birding Community or even the Scientific Community for that matter, these tiny winged wonders show up far outside their normal range on an annual basis across North America. In Georgia, any hummingbird that shows up from late fall through early spring is a candidate for being an interesting vagrant western species. Be sure to visit Rusty Trump’s Georgia Hummer Study Group for lots of great information, and to report any winter hummers you see; it's always a good idea to keep one feeder clean and full through the winter months just in case. Some species which are known to winter more regularly in the state include Rufous (most common) and Black-chinned Hummingbirds, with Calliope Hummingbird a distant third. Other species that have shown up at least once include Broad-tailed, Anna’s, Broad-billed, Allen’s, Magnificent, Green Violet-ear, and maybe the biggest surprise in Georgia birding in recent years was a Green-breasted Mango that appeared in Dublin in October 2007 and was present until [February 2008 - ongoing]. With this history in mind, it is no surprise that some of the remaining North American hummingbird species that have yet to appear are among several birders’ picks for Georgia's next new bird, including Blue-throated Hummingbird, White-eared Hummingbird, and Costa's Hummingbird.

Snail Kite – This Florida specialty appears on many birders’ “short lists” for showing up in Georgia, and for good reason. This species is easily affected by drought conditions and other disturbances, and is capable of wandering great distances. A bird was found in South Carolina in May 2007 and many felt that this was the result of severe drought conditions and possibly the compounding pressure of a massive fire in the Okefenokee Swamp in South Georgia (and related far-reaching smoke pollution) at the time. Interestingly, the bird was relating loyally to a crawfish farm pond, which is indirect evidence that they are quite capable of successfully adjusting their diet from their customary apple snail-dominated menu.

Fork-tailed Flycatcher – This flashy species is a casual to accidental vagrant, wandering into North America on an almost annual basis and most frequently showing up in the eastern US; it seems only a matter of time until one shows up in Georgia – most likely on the coast…? There have been at least two unconfirmed sightings of this species in Georgia in the past 15 years.

Groove-billed Ani – This species has been recorded in all the Gulf Coast states from Texas to Florida, and “should” show up, presumably in the massively under-birded SW corner of the state, at some point…?

White-tailed Kite – Another wandering western vagrant, this species interestingly boasts a small isolated breeding population in South Florida. It has shown up all along the Gulf Coast and even in the Carolinas. According to the ACOGB, this bird was listed in LeConte’s 1849 list of Georgia birds, and a report was made from Brasstown Bald in 1962 but was not accepted by the GOS Records and Checklist Committee.

Neotropic Cormorant - As mentioned by several birders, this species might be looked for among the common Double-crested Cormorants on bodies of water in the birding vacuum in the SW corner of the state, especially at Lake Seminole on the Florida-Georgia-Alabama border, and especially during post-breeding dispersal from late summer to late fall, or perhaps even in winter. These two species can be difficult to separate in the field, particularly in juvenile plumage. If you get a closer look, pay attention to the pointed gape of the Neotropic versus a rounded or squared gape/gular patch in Double-crested. In flight, one of the most reliable field marks most birders refer to is tail length; simply put, a Neotropic has a longer tail and should appear as if tail length is roughly equal to neck/head length, whereas Double-crested's tail length is shorter than neck/head length. In adult birds, look for the classic white "V" of feathering bordering the gular patch of Neotropic, and in adult Double-crested look for bare yellow skin extending from the gular patch well in front of and surrounding the eye versus a dark supraloral area and dark feathering around the eye of Neotropic.

Bronzed Cowbird - Like other cowbirds, this brood parasite lays its eggs in the nests of other birds to be raised by the unsuspecting parents of the host species (especially sparrows and orioles for the Bronzed). It is commonly found in South Texas and in summer its breeding range expands westward throughout that state and across parts of New Mexico, Arizona, and California; there is both a western eastern sub-species. There may still be a remnant breeding population in Louisiana, the apparent frontier of a large expansion that took place about 60 years ago but has since subsided. It is found more and more often in Florida in the winter, along with numerous reports along the southern edge of the Gulf Coast States and a few vagrant records well to the north. All these factors point to the possibility that the species could show up in Georgia, most likely in the winter, mixed in with large wintering flocks of blackbirds, and (like several other predictions) most likely in the under-birded SW corner of the state and along the Florida border. In fact, it is likely that the species has already occured in Georgia but along with the fact that the most likely areas do not receive much birding coverage, it is a daunting task to sort through flocks of 10,000+ blackbirds and cowbirds trying to find one! There has been at least one unconfirmed report of this species in Georgia in the past 15 years.

Common Myna - This one is a "sleeper pick" by a few birders to be one of Georgia's new birds. This popular cage bird imported from Asia was first detected breeding in the wild in South Florida in 1983. Today, it is a common trash bird in the parking lots of strip malls and fast-food restaurants across the southern half of that state, breeding commonly in man-made structures such as signs, marquees, and storefronts much like House Sparrows. If the species is capable of long-distance expansion and a control program is not stepped up, it could show up in a South Georgia parking lot in the next 5-10 years...?

Black-capped Chickadee – The range of this northern species extends southward along a narrow band associated directly with the higher elevations of the Appalachian Mountains. This band is not continuous, and there is specifically a large (approximately 200-mile) gap between populations of the Appalachian sub-species Poecile atricapillus practicus breeding in the mountains of West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, and Pennsylvania and an isolated population of the same sub-species which exists in the Great Smoky Mountains along the Tennessee and North Carolina border, and also in the Plott Balsam Mountains of North Carolina. Another isolated population in the Black Mountains of NC was extirpated by the 1930s as a result of logging and fires. An extensive and informative study of this southern population and its similarities, differences, and interactions with the abundant Georgia resident Carolina Chickadee was conducted in the late 1940s and early 1950s by reknowned ornithologist James T. Tanner of Ivory-billed Woodpecker fame, and can be read here.

As his work confirmed, there is considerable difficulty distinguishing between Black-capped and Carolina Chickadees in the field due to several factors. One of these challenges is possible hybridization in "zones of overlap" where both species might be found; it has even been suggested that the Carolina is actually a sub-species of the Black-capped but this is an increasingly unpopular view in light of recent genetic studies. In the hand, the formula of tail-to-wing length ratio and overall size difference (Black-capped being larger) can be used consistently to separate them. Interestingly, the average size of sub-species P.a. practicus Black-capped Chickadees in the isolated Great Smoky Mountains population was smaller than those in the populations of the West Virginia area (which are contiguous with areas occupied by the nominate eastern species Poecile atricapillus atricapillus). But Tanner did not believe hybridization with Carolina Chickadees was a major factor in the Smokies. Where Black-capped Chickadees occurred, Carolinas did not – a fact that he surmised indicated competition between the two species for suitable breeding habitat, and that the former species was able to hold its ground despite its territory being surrounded on all sides by Carolina Chickadees. He was able to determine, in fact, that Carolina Chickadees would nest at very high elevations in the Black Mountains in areas historically dominated by Black-capped before they were extirpated by logging and fires. Unless the Black-capped Chickadees are holding off Carolinas in the Smokies, the latter species would have taken over here as well. In contrast, he believed that hybridization played a larger role in the smaller isolated population of the Plott Balsam Mountains, 20 miles southeast of the Smokies. Now, more than 50 years after his work, Tanner’s hypothesized long-term effects of this hybridization may have already reduced the number of genetically pure Black-capped Chickadees in the Plott Balsam population and, perhaps, may have decreased the Great Smokies population as well. However, as recently as 1999 the Black-capped Chickadee was determined to be the 25th most common breeding bird in Great Smoky Mountains National Park and members of the Plott Balsam population were still listed as targets for birding field trips to those mountains as recently as 2006.

Observations of plumage, especially in fresh individuals from fall through early spring, and observations of voice (even a difference in the rate of call notes, or “dees,” per five seconds) can also be useful in identification of Black-capped versus Carolina Chickadees in the field. One of the most evident differences in plumage is wide, white edges of the greater wing coverts and especially of the secondaries of Black-capped, which are gray or brownish in Carolinas. Tanner also noted that in Black-capped Chickadees of the southern Appalachians “the brown of the sides and flanks contrasts well with the gray mid-breast and belly, a pattern that is very rare in Carolinas where the underparts tend to be uniform gray or brownish gray.” The primary song of the two species is clearly different and is noted in many field guides as being a lower-pitched, mainly two-syllable “phee-bee-ee” or “phee-beee” for Black-capped versus a rhythmic, higher-pitched, four-syllable “fee-bee, fee-bay” for Carolinas. Pertaining to call note, Tanner found that Carolinas tended to display a faster rate of “dees” per five seconds on average, after he analyzed more than 175 recordings of each species. Again, all of these visual and auditory observations can be very difficult to accurately detect in the field for the amateur ornithologist (a.k.a. birder), unless supplemented by photographs and/or audio recordings. Worn individuals from late spring through summer can be virtually impossible to distinguish visually but, as noted in the next section, it is not at all likely that one would encounter Black-capped Chickadee in Georgia at that time of year. It is especially important to note that in the “zone of overlap” between the two species, which includes any part of Georgia where Black-capped might hypothetically occur, identification is further complicated by the ability of one species to learn and sing the other’s song, and by possible hybridization between the two species, as mentioned earlier. This would effectively make any sight-only record of Black-capped Chickadee in Georgia virtually impossible to be accepted by the Georgia Ornithological Society’s Records and Checklists Committee, and for good reason. In order to determine with any degree of accuracy that an individual found in Georgia pertains to this species, evidence will need to include photographs, audio recordings, perhaps even capture and subsequent physical measures and/or collection of genetic material, or the recovery of a specimen.

During the breeding season (spring through late summer), it is highly unlikely that Black-capped Chickadee will ever be recorded in Georgia, as the only confirmed breeding areas are well to our north in the Smokies and Plott Balsams, and are almost exclusively located above 4,000 feet elevation. However, during the winter they often join mixed flocks and tend to move down-slope and sometimes even southward in latitude (especially following extreme winter weather). This could hypothetically bring members of the isolated southern population into Georgia in mountainous areas of Fannin, Gilmer, Union, Towns, White, Habersham, or Rabun Counties. In addition, the nominate species of eastern Black-capped Chickadee has been known to stage “irruptions,” an unusual explosive southward expansion during fall and winter that in Georgia is more commonly associated with species such as Pine Siskin, Purple Finch, Red-breasted Nuthatch, and (rarely) Northern Saw-whet Owl. These events, also known as “invasions,” are generally accepted to be a function of decreased food availability, particularly in winters following highly successful breeding seasons when there are essentially more individuals competing for less food in their typical range. In irruptive years, eastern Black-capped Chickadees (P.a. atricapillus) are routinely recorded well south of their normal range in places such as Maryland, eastern Kentucky, and Virginia and even as far south as Oklahoma. Though it would truly be an exceptional leap, during a particularly strong irruption year individuals could make it as far south as Georgia. Of note, the only sighting mentioned in the Annotated Checklist of Georgia Birds (2003) is an unaccepted record from Demorest, Habersham County, in the NE corner of the state in December 1961 which was, in fact, during an “invasion year.”

I predict that in the next 3-5 years a Chickadee species deserving further study will be brought to the attention of the Birding Community, that the sighting will occur between October and March, that the bird will most likely be coming to feeders to allow adequate observation and documentation, and that it will be found somewhere in the mountains of NE Georgia. A field report (not at a feeder) may also be filed in the next few years that will warrant further investigation and/or will include photographic or audio documentation. Sporadic, unconfirmed reports of the species have, in fact, already been made over the past 10 years but no photographic or other evidence has yet been obtained. Some places that birders might concentrate their efforts for detecting this species in Georgia in fall and winter include the Cohutta Wilderness Area in Fannin and Gilmer Counties, the Chattahoochee National Forest (especially areas in extreme NE Georgia in Rabun County and along GA Hwy 60 in Union County), Tray Mountain Wilderness / Swallow Creek WMA in White and Towns Counties, Cooper's Creek WMA in Union County, or the upper Tallulah River watershed. After additional observation and documentation including photographs, audio recordings, and perhaps even capture, one of these reports will prove to be a Black-capped Chickadee or, at the very least, an individual with irrefutable evidence of being a hybrid with Carolina Chickadee.